Daily Summary from the VU Weather Center

For , Friday

.Short Term...(Friday thru Sunday)...Looks like the weekend will the the proverbial calm before the storm...with fairly benign weather through Sunday morning...before a major storm system begins to affect the region. For the time being...weak frontal passage late Thursday and CAA behind the front is keeping temperatures quite cool across the region Friday...with highs during the day only increasing a degree or two from morning lows (middle-upper teens). Beginning late Friday into early Saturday...intense warm air advection will begin...with forecast soundings indicating southerly low level wind fields in excess of 50 kts. This should result in a warming of temperatures overnight Friday...and through the day on Saturday. Moisture return with this advection will result in an increase in cloud cover. Should see a fairly thick cirrus/high AC deck starting Saturday...with lower level clouds filtering in during the day. Starting early Sunday morning...precip will begin. Right now...it looks like this will begin as all rain...and remain as such during the day on Sunday and overnight into Monday. Temperatures are going to be a bit tricky through the period...with the aforementioned overnight warming and continued WAA. MOS numbers seem too cool...likely owning to too large of a climatological influence. As such...feel like numbers need to be bumped up a few degrees...especially with daytime highs Sunday. Concerning winds...with a very stable column...not expecting much vertical mixing...but wouldn't be surprised to see a decent southerly breeze through the weekend...especially during the day Saturday. **BOXELL** .Long Term...(Sunday night thru Tuesday)....Main concern with the forecast is the timing of the cold front on Monday morning. With upper level trough out to the west slowly moving east...and vort max up in WI also being advected to the east...a set up for a strong cold front seems to being moving through the area. Strong WAA and significant moisture both aloft and at the surface due to melting snow packs will perhaps allow a rumble of thunder and lightning or two on Sunday evening before the cold front moves through. As the front passes on Monday expect significant temperature drops. We go from 9 degrees Celsius at 12Z to -3 degrees Celsius by 18Z...with significant moisture still present through the whole layer and model soundings show the whole layer to be below freezing expect snow on Monday. Amounts are unknown at this time since it is dependent on the timing and location of the low. Lake effect on Tuesday seems unlikely at this time but can not rule out the chance since the low can track farther north or south. Tuesday a high pressure will move into the area giving us northerly winds and partly sunny skies. Happy Holidays from all of us here at the VU Wx Center (DUNTEN).

Boxell/Dunten

11:00 AM 12/12/08

Questions go to Ki-Hong.Min@valpo.edu.

Please note: This discussion is generally updated between 4:00 and 5:00 PM Monday through Friday.

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